Questioning of the Sampling Techniques Used
Looking closer to the sampling techniques used in the section titled, “Trends In Venture Capital Funds”, one should begin to question Nicole Onorato’s conclusions.
First, Onorato uses two conflicting sources of data for her first point in this section. “In 1985, the professional venture capital community had $19.6 billion under management.
By 1995, the total had grown to $43.5 billion, a 122 percent increase.” The source of this data is from Coopers and Lybrand[1]. In the same paragraph, she states that the amount in 1995 was $37.15 Billion. This amount is from a different source, Horsley[2]. Did Onorato choose Coopers and Lybrand to inflate her point that the venture capital community had a significant increase in capital?
With the title of the report being, “Trends in Venture Capital Funding in the 1990s” it is also interesting that the author includes the 1980’s in her initial calculations. It would be helpful if Onorato gave a reason for why she went back to 1985 to demonstrate a trend in the 1990s.
“The fastest growing funding source in the 1990s has been corporations, which contributed 19 percent of funds in 1996 — a $920 million increase from 1990, when they contributed just 7 percent.” This is another conclusion that Onorato makes in this section. Why was 1996 now added to the date range? Before, in the same section, 1995 was the last date in the range. If the report’s purpose is to report the trends of the venture capital market then the sampling methods used should be explained and kept consistent for all samples.
Questioning of the Statistical Techniques Used
The report only uses percents of samples taken from each year to show the trends in the venture capital market. Additional information that would be useful to a consumer reading this report would be the presentation of charts and the use of other statistical tools aside from the percent increase between two arbitrarily chosen years.
For instance, a chart showing the money in venture capital management for the years between 1990 and 1995 could give the reader a visual understanding of the data given. Figure A (page 7) of this report is the chart that should have been given. There will be a further analysis of this chart.
Another chart that would be useful is a scatter plot between the number of firms and the amount of capital under venture capital management. Onorato infers a negative correlation between the number of firms and the amount of capital. A scatter plot would help make her point. The scatter plot that should have been given is in Figure B (page 8). There will be a further analysis of this chart as well.
A report discussing trends should include charts with trend lines. Instead of leaving it up to the reader to spot the trends that are concluded in this report, a trend line would be useful. A coefficient of correlation between the number of firms and the amount of capital under venture capital management would also help in justifying Onorato findings. As we analyze the data that should have been provided, Onorato’s finding should become clearer and justified, or will it?
Changes in Thinking
Newly constructed statistics based on the same data given in the report present a different set of conclusions than that given in the report. Figure A, Figure B, and the coefficient of correlation between the number of firms and the amount of capital under venture capital management have been calculated and presented. There is also a closer examination of the data presented in the chart from the report given in Figure C.
Figure A gives a graphical representation of the amount of capital in venture capital management. The chart also shows a trend line to help give a better description of the trend. Looking at Figure A, is this a significant increase in funding in the early 1990s? The trend line has a slope of 0.65. That’s only a 9.7% increase from 1990 to 1995. Given that inflation from 1990 to 1995 increased 18.6 percent[3], the amount of money in the 1990s at the time of the report has actually decreased. There is a strong difference in the 122 percent increase stated in the first sentence of the, “Trends In Venture Capital Funds” section of the report and the findings given in Figure A.
Figure A.

Figure B shows an even more drastic change in conclusions given in the report. As Figure B shows, the trend line of the number of firms and the amount of money under venture capital management is a positive slope. This shows a slight positive relationship between the two. Also, when the coefficient of correlation is calculated, the result is 0.226. This contradicts the author’s implication that the number of firms in the US are decreasing while the amount of capital is increasing. Our calculations show that there is a positive correlation between the number of firms and the amount of capital available for businesses needing funding. Thus, there is a greater probability that there will be a greater amount of capital under venture capital management when there are more venture capital firms.
Figure B

An analysis of Figure C shows even more inconsistencies in Onorato’s interpretations of the data. “The fastest growing funding source in the 1990s has been corporations, which contributed 19 percent of funds in 1996 — a $920 million increase from 1990, when they contributed just 7 percent.” But a look at the chart, in Figure C, shows an interesting bit of information.
Figure C

First, it should be noted that that the actual values of this crowded chart are not given and that the yellow bars displaying the amount each year that corporations commit to venture capital seem to blend into the background of this chart. A closer look at these bars actually shows that between 1990 and 1995 there is not a large growth trend in corporate contributions at all. In fact, 1990, 1991, and 1992 shows a decline in the amount committed by corporations. There is an increase in 1993 and 1994 but then in 1995 there is a sharp decline again. The actual trend line of this chart cannot even be calculated because the values for each bar are not given and the increments on the Y axis are by the $500 millions even though most of the bars do not even reach $500 million.
Onorato mentions an increase in the amount corporations were contributing. To make this point Onorato, for unknown reasons, added 1996 to the range of data. In 1996, corporations’ contributions increased to over one billion dollars. But this doesn’t show a trend. The year 1996 is an outlier, an unusual year. Adding this year to the chart gives a false impression to the data. Maybe this is why Onorato added 1996 to her calculations. Then, to conclude that corporations are the “fastest growing” based on a one year spurt is a great misunderstanding of the data.
Conclusion
After further analysis of the data presented in the report, conclusions from the report need to be reexamined. Consistent samples of the data, graphical charts, trend lines, and calculated coefficient of correlation should have been given in the initial report. When looking for trends in data as complex as the trends in financial markets, such as the venture capital market, detailed statistics should be used. Other useful calculations such as the variance in these trends, and the probability of events in the future, would have also been useful in a report such as this. With a report issued by the United States Small Business Administration Office of Advocacy, one would expect there would be more scrutiny in the numbers and conclusions issued to the public.
[1] Coopers and Lybrand, Seventh Annual Economic Impact of Venture Capital Study.
[2] Horsley, Trends in Private Equity; National Venture Capital Association, annual reports, 1992–1995.